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Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:45

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.1%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.3%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 37.7% 2.65 +22.4%

Draw 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -5.6%

Away win 24.3% 37.7% 2.65 -35.6%

Over 2.5 47.1% 44.4% 2.25 +6.0%

Over 3.5 25.5% 23.8% 4.20 +7.1%

BTTS 52.4% 51.8% 1.93 +1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–0✓ 7.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zaglebie Lubin1.5

Cracovia Krakow1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.73

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Zaglebie Lubin (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +22.4%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.6%

Cracovia Krakow (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -35.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zaglebie Lubin face Cracovia Krakow in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Cracovia Krakow 24%, so Zaglebie Lubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.0 for Cracovia Krakow (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.07 for Cracovia Krakow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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