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Yverdon vs Etoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Yverdon

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Etoile Carouge

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.6%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.5%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.4%3-16.1%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Draw 25.8% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 21.5% 25.3% 3.95 -15.1%

Over 2.5 57.8% 59.9% 1.67 -3.5%

Over 3.5 35.4% 38.2% 2.62 -7.2%

BTTS 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yverdon1.9

Etoile Carouge1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YVERDON · PPG 2.00

ETOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Yverdon (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Etoile Carouge (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yverdon face Etoile Carouge in Switzerland - Challenge League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yverdon a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Etoile Carouge 22%, so Yverdon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Yverdon and 1.1 for Etoile Carouge (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yverdon are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Etoile Carouge. This match finished 3-5.

Yverdon vs Etoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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