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Bellinzona vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Bellinzona

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rapperswil

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.7%0-26.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.1%1-111.2%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 42.0% 2.38 -20.3%

Draw 27.6% 29.9% 3.35 -7.5%

Away win 39.0% 38.2% 2.62 +2.2%

Over 2.5 57.8% 58.8% 1.70 -1.7%

Over 3.5 35.4% 37.0% 2.70 -4.4%

BTTS 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bellinzona1.4

Rapperswil1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BELLINZONA · PPG 1.13

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bellinzona (H) 33.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -20.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.5%

Rapperswil (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bellinzona face Rapperswil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bellinzona a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Rapperswil 39%, so Rapperswil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bellinzona and 1.6 for Rapperswil (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bellinzona are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.00 for Rapperswil. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 2-4.

Bellinzona vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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