Today / Mgladbach W vs Viktoria B. W

Mgladbach W vs Viktoria B. W Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Mgladbach W
PPG 1.45 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
Viktoria B. W
PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.45) vs Away GOOD (1.82)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-19.3%0-28.3%0-35.0%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.1%1-110.9%1-29.7%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.5%2-16.3%2-25.7%2-33.4%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 23.1%
Draw 26.5%
Away win 50.3%
Over 2.5 56.6%
Over 3.5 34.2%
BTTS 58.9%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.9%

A 50% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%
#2 1–2 9.7%
#3 0–2 8.3%
#4 0–1 9.3%
#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mgladbach W1.2
Viktoria B. W1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MGLADBACH W · PPG 1.45

VIKTORIA B. W · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.45) vs Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Mgladbach W (H) 23.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Viktoria B. W (A) 50.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mgladbach W face Viktoria B. W on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mgladbach W a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Viktoria B. W 50%, so Viktoria B. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mgladbach W and 1.8 for Viktoria B. W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mgladbach W are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.82 for Viktoria B. W. This match finished 1-1.

PredictVantage

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