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TuBa Pohlheim vs Hummetroth Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

TuBa Pohlheim

PPG 1.57 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hummetroth

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.3%0-22.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.5%1-17.5%1-26.2%1-33.4%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.8%3-16.3%3-25.2%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-16.0%4+-25.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 27.4% — — —

Over 2.5 74.8% — — —

Over 3.5 54.9% — — —

BTTS 73.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob73.6%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TuBa Pohlheim2.2

Hummetroth1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.8% · O3.5 PROB 54.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TUBA POHLHEIM · PPG 1.57

HUMMETROTH · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

TuBa Pohlheim (H) 50.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hummetroth (A) 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TuBa Pohlheim face Hummetroth in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TuBa Pohlheim a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Hummetroth 27%, so TuBa Pohlheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for TuBa Pohlheim and 1.7 for Hummetroth (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TuBa Pohlheim are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.33 for Hummetroth. This match finished 4-2.

TuBa Pohlheim vs Hummetroth Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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