Today / S. Kickers vs Homburg

S. Kickers vs Homburg Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

S. Kickers

PPG 1.93 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Homburg

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.1%0-25.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.6%1-110.7%1-28.7%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 39.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.6% — — —

Over 3.5 38.2% — — —

BTTS 64.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.1%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Kickers1.5

Homburg1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

S. KICKERS · PPG 1.93

HOMBURG · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

S. Kickers (H) 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Homburg (A) 39.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Kickers face Homburg on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Kickers a 34% chance, the draw 27% and Homburg 39%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for S. Kickers and 1.6 for Homburg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Kickers are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.60 for Homburg. This match finished 2-0.

S. Kickers vs Homburg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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