Today / Germany - 3. Liga / MSV Duisburg vs Energie Cottbus

MSV Duisburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

MSV Duisburg

PPG 2.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Energie Cottbus

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.7%0-24.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.0%1-110.2%1-27.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.7%3-15.4%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 37.0% 2.70 +18.8%

Draw 26.0% 27.4% 3.65 -5.1%

Away win 30.1% 42.6% 2.35 -29.3%

Over 2.5 62.9% 64.5% 1.55 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.8% 42.6% 2.35 -4.1%

BTTS 65.4% 69.4% 1.44 -5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob65.4%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MSV Duisburg1.8

Energie Cottbus1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MSV DUISBURG · PPG 2.53

ENERGIE COTTBUS · PPG 1.71

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs P(Home)=44.0%

Win probability 1X2

MSV Duisburg (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +18.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.1%

Energie Cottbus (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

MSV Duisburg face Energie Cottbus in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MSV Duisburg a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Energie Cottbus 30%, so MSV Duisburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for MSV Duisburg and 1.5 for Energie Cottbus (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MSV Duisburg are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.71 for Energie Cottbus. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 2-1.

MSV Duisburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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