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Magdeburg vs Hertha Berlin Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

Magdeburg

PPG 0.93 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hertha Berlin

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.7%0-26.5%0-33.7%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.4%1-110.8%1-29.1%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.5%2-26.4%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.1%3-13.5%3-23.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 48.8% 2.05 -38.1%

Draw 26.9% 26.3% 3.80 +2.2%

Away win 42.9% 32.3% 3.10 +33.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 70.4% 1.42 -15.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 48.8% 2.05 -23.5%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magdeburg1.4

Hertha Berlin1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGDEBURG · PPG 0.93

HERTHA BERLIN · PPG 1.87

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.87) vs Home POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Magdeburg (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -38.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +2.2%

Hertha Berlin (A) 42.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magdeburg face Hertha Berlin in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magdeburg a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Hertha Berlin 43%, so Hertha Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Magdeburg and 1.7 for Hertha Berlin (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magdeburg are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.87 for Hertha Berlin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Magdeburg vs Hertha Berlin Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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