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Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

Karlsruher SC

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Darmstadt

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.8%0-25.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.5%1-19.6%1-28.4%1-34.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.6%2-18.0%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.5%3-14.4%3-23.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 35.7% 2.80 -0.6%

Draw 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -2.2%

Away win 39.1% 45.5% 2.20 -14.0%

Over 2.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

BTTS 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.4%

A 39% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1✓ 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlsruher SC1.7

Darmstadt1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSRUHER SC · PPG 1.80

DARMSTADT · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Karlsruher SC (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.6%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.2%

Darmstadt (A) 39.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlsruher SC face Darmstadt in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlsruher SC a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Darmstadt 39%, so Darmstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Karlsruher SC and 1.8 for Darmstadt (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.07 for Darmstadt. This match finished 2-1.

Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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