Greuther Furth vs FC Nurnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Germany - 2. Bundesliga Regular Season - 32 Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer· Furth Sunday, May 3, 2026 11:30

Greuther Furth PPG 1.27

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

FC Nurnberg PPG 0.87

Draw· -0.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Greuther Furth face FC Nurnberg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greuther Furth a 35% chance, the draw 27% and FC Nurnberg 38%, so FC Nurnberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Greuther Furth and 1.6 for FC Nurnberg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greuther Furth are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.87 for FC Nurnberg. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.0%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -12.5%

Draw 27.2%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -0.7%

Away 37.8%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -5.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.3% Odds: 1.60 -5.1%

Over 3.5 36.9% Odds: 2.50 -7.8%

BTTS 63.2% Odds: 1.48 -6.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Greuther Furth

1.50

FC Nurnberg

1.57

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -47.1%

Bet Hit 33% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.87)