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Greuther Furth vs FC Nurnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

Greuther Furth

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Nurnberg

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.3%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.0%1-110.9%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.2%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 40.0% 2.50 -12.5%

Draw 27.2% 27.4% 3.65 -0.7%

Away win 37.8% 40.0% 2.50 -5.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 62.5% 1.60 -5.1%

Over 3.5 36.9% 40.0% 2.50 -7.8%

BTTS 63.2% 67.6% 1.48 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greuther Furth1.5

FC Nurnberg1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GREUTHER FURTH · PPG 1.27

FC NURNBERG · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Greuther Furth (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -12.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.7%

FC Nurnberg (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Greuther Furth face FC Nurnberg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greuther Furth a 35% chance, the draw 27% and FC Nurnberg 38%, so FC Nurnberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Greuther Furth and 1.6 for FC Nurnberg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greuther Furth are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.87 for FC Nurnberg. This match finished 1-1.

Greuther Furth vs FC Nurnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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