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Elversberg vs Paderborn Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

Elversberg

PPG 2.07 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Paderborn

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.7%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-111.8%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.6%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Draw 28.6% 26.7% 3.75 +7.2%

Away win 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.2%

Over 2.5 52.8% 66.7% 1.50 -20.8%

Over 3.5 30.6% 45.5% 2.20 -32.7%

BTTS 57.9% 70.4% 1.42 -17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.9%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elversberg1.5

Paderborn1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVERSBERG · PPG 2.07

PADERBORN · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Elversberg (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +7.2%

Paderborn (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elversberg face Paderborn in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elversberg a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Paderborn 30%, so Elversberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Elversberg and 1.3 for Paderborn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elversberg are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.73 for Paderborn. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 5-1.

Elversberg vs Paderborn Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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