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Panevezys vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:15

Panevezys

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Zalgiris

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-115.8%0-210.4%0-34.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.6%1-112.7%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-03.9%2-15.1%2-23.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -12.2%

Draw 32.3% 28.2% 3.55 +14.7%

Away win 46.8% 58.8% 1.70 -20.4%

Over 2.5 35.6% 54.1% 1.85 -34.1%

Over 3.5 16.5% 31.3% 3.20 -47.2%

BTTS 42.4% 56.5% 1.77 -24.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob42.4%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 15.8%

#4 0–2 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panevezys0.8

Zalgiris1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PANEVEZYS · PPG 1.25

ZALGIRIS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Panevezys (H) 20.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.2%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +14.7%

Zalgiris (A) 46.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panevezys face Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panevezys a 21% chance, the draw 32% and Zalgiris 47%, so Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Panevezys and 1.3 for Zalgiris (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panevezys are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Panevezys vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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