Today / T. Wilhelmsburg vs Victoria H.

T. Wilhelmsburg vs Victoria H. Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

T. Wilhelmsburg

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Victoria H.

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.6%0-24.3%0-34.7%0-4+9.0%1 1-01.2%1-14.0%1-26.6%1-37.3%1-4+13.8%2 2-00.9%2-13.1%2-25.1%2-35.6%2-4+10.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.6%3-22.6%3-32.9%3-4+5.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.9% — — —

Draw 15.2% — — —

Away win 70.9% — — —

Over 2.5 86.2% — — —

Over 3.5 71.2% — — —

BTTS 76.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob76.3%

A 71% / xG 1.5-3.3 / O2.5 86% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3✓ 7.3%

#2 1–2 6.6%

#3 1–4 6.0%

#4 2–3 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Wilhelmsburg1.5

Victoria H.3.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 86.2% · O3.5 PROB 71.2%

Form & verdict PPG

T. WILHELMSBURG · PPG 1.00

VICTORIA H. · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

T. Wilhelmsburg (H) 13.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Victoria H. (A) 70.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Wilhelmsburg face Victoria H. on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Wilhelmsburg a 14% chance, the draw 15% and Victoria H. 71%, so Victoria H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for T. Wilhelmsburg and 3.3 for Victoria H. (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Wilhelmsburg are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.07 for Victoria H.. This match finished 1-3.

T. Wilhelmsburg vs Victoria H. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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