Today / Katowice vs Termalica

Katowice vs Termalica Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Katowice

PPG 1.93 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Termalica

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.9%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.8%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.9%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 22.7% — — —

Over 2.5 57.0% — — —

Over 3.5 34.6% — — —

BTTS 59.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.1%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katowice1.8

Termalica1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KATOWICE · PPG 1.93

TERMALICA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Katowice (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Termalica (A) 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Katowice face Termalica on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katowice a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Termalica 23%, so Katowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Katowice and 1.2 for Termalica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katowice are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.00 for Termalica. This match finished 5-1.

Katowice vs Termalica Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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