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AZ W vs Heerenveen W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:15

AZ W logo
AZ W
PPG 0.78 · HOME
1 – 5
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Heerenveen W logo
Heerenveen W
PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.8%0-22.5%0-31.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.7%1-16.7%1-26.0%1-33.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.0%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.2%3-25.5%3-33.3%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-16.4%4+-25.7%4+-33.4%4+-4+2.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 49.9%
Draw 21.6%
Away win 28.5%
Over 2.5 78.3%
Over 3.5 59.5%
BTTS 76.4%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%
O2.5 68%
BTTS 56%
Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-5
xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob76.4%

H 50% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%
#2 1–1 6.7%
#3 2–2 7.0%
#4 3–1 6.2%
#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AZ W2.4
Heerenveen W1.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.3% · O3.5 PROB 59.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AZ W · PPG 0.78

HEERENVEEN W · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

AZ W (H) 49.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Heerenveen W (A) 28.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

AZ W face Heerenveen W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AZ W a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Heerenveen W 28%, so AZ W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for AZ W and 1.8 for Heerenveen W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AZ W are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Heerenveen W. This match finished 1-5.

PredictVantage

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