Today / Netherlands - Eredivisie Women / AZ W vs Heerenveen W
AZ W vs Heerenveen W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women
Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:15
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 50% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 76%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.3% · O3.5 PROB 59.5%
Form & verdict
AZ W · PPG 0.78
HEERENVEEN W · PPG 0.89
Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away POOR (0.89)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
AZ W face Heerenveen W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AZ W a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Heerenveen W 28%, so AZ W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for AZ W and 1.8 for Heerenveen W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AZ W are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Heerenveen W. This match finished 1-5.