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Union Santa Fe vs Newells Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 23:30

Union Santa Fe

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Newells

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.7%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-18.4%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.4%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-17.2%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.8% 61.0% 1.64 +14.5%

Draw 17.8% 29.0% 3.45 -38.6%

Away win 12.3% 16.9% 5.90 -27.4%

Over 2.5 60.7% 44.4% 2.25 +36.6%

Over 3.5 38.4% 23.8% 4.20 +61.3%

BTTS 51.4% 47.6% 2.10 +7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.4%

H 70% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Santa Fe2.3

Newells0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 2.00

NEWELLS · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

64%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Union Santa Fe (H) 69.8%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +14.5%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -38.6%

Newells (A) 12.3%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Santa Fe face Newells in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Santa Fe a 70% chance, the draw 18% and Newells 12%, so Union Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Union Santa Fe and 0.8 for Newells (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Santa Fe are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Newells. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +61.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Union Santa Fe vs Newells Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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