Union Santa Fe vs Newells Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Apertura - 15 Estadio 15 de Abril· Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz Friday, April 17, 2026 23:30

Union Santa Fe PPG 2.00

2-3 MISS

Newells PPG 0.67

Over3.5· +61.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Santa Fe face Newells in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Santa Fe a 70% chance, the draw 18% and Newells 12%, so Union Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Union Santa Fe and 0.8 for Newells (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Santa Fe are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Newells. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +61.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 69.8%

Odds: 1.64 EV: +14.5%

Draw 17.8%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -38.6%

Away 12.3%

Odds: 5.90 EV: -27.4%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.7% Odds: 2.25 +36.6%

Over 3.5 38.4% Odds: 4.20 +61.3%

BTTS 51.4% Odds: 2.10 +7.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Union Santa Fe

2.29

Newells

0.85

Model SuggestionHome +14.5% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+61.3%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus