Today / Tenerife B vs S. Sebastian R.

Tenerife B vs S. Sebastian R. Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Tenerife B

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

S. Sebastian R.

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.9%0-27.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.4%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-17.5%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 40.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.4% — — —

BTTS 56.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.2%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tenerife B1.2

S. Sebastian R.1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TENERIFE B · PPG 1.38

S. SEBASTIAN R. · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Tenerife B (H) 30.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Sebastian R. (A) 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tenerife B face S. Sebastian R. on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tenerife B a 30% chance, the draw 29% and S. Sebastian R. 40%, so S. Sebastian R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tenerife B and 1.5 for S. Sebastian R. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tenerife B are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.19 for S. Sebastian R.. This match finished 1-3.

Tenerife B vs S. Sebastian R. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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