Today / Ilicitano vs Quintanar

Ilicitano vs Quintanar Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Ilicitano

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Quintanar

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.5%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.6%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 52.8% — — —

Over 3.5 30.5% — — —

BTTS 57.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.6%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilicitano1.6

Quintanar1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ILICITANO · PPG 1.13

QUINTANAR · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Ilicitano (H) 43.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Quintanar (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilicitano face Quintanar on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilicitano a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Quintanar 28%, so Ilicitano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ilicitano and 1.2 for Quintanar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilicitano are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.81 for Quintanar.

Ilicitano vs Quintanar Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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