Today / A. Malagueno vs Melilla

A. Malagueno vs Melilla Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

A. Malagueno

PPG 1.06 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Melilla

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.9%0-27.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% — — —

Draw 31.9% — — —

Away win 37.3% — — —

Over 2.5 41.5% — — —

Over 3.5 20.9% — — —

BTTS 49.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.4%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Malagueno1.1

Melilla1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

A. MALAGUENO · PPG 1.06

MELILLA · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.31)

Win probability 1X2

A. Malagueno (H) 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Melilla (A) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Malagueno face Melilla on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Malagueno a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Melilla 37%, so Melilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for A. Malagueno and 1.2 for Melilla (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Malagueno are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.31 for Melilla. This match finished 3-3.

A. Malagueno vs Melilla Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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