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Albion vs Central Espanol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 12 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 23:00

Albion

PPG 1.17 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Central Espanol

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-110.8%0-28.1%0-34.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.7%2-16.9%2-25.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.8%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 45.9% 2.18 -37.0%

Draw 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -22.6%

Away win 45.4% 29.9% 3.35 +52.1%

Over 2.5 48.6% 40.8% 2.45 +19.1%

Over 3.5 26.8% 21.1% 4.75 +27.3%

BTTS 52.4% 50.0% 2.00 +4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.4%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 10.8%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albion1.1

Central Espanol1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBION · PPG 1.17

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.83

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Albion (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -37.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -22.6%

Central Espanol (A) 45.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +52.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albion face Central Espanol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albion a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Central Espanol 45%, so Central Espanol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Albion and 1.5 for Central Espanol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albion are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.83 for Central Espanol. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.1%. This match finished 6-1.

Albion vs Central Espanol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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