Today / Sarriana vs Rayo Cantabria

Sarriana vs Rayo Cantabria Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Sarriana

PPG 1.56 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rayo Cantabria

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.8%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.8%1-111.8%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 32.0% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 59.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarriana1.5

Rayo Cantabria1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SARRIANA · PPG 1.56

RAYO CANTABRIA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sarriana (H) 39.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rayo Cantabria (A) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarriana face Rayo Cantabria on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarriana a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Rayo Cantabria 32%, so Sarriana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sarriana and 1.3 for Rayo Cantabria (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarriana are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Rayo Cantabria. This match finished 3-4.

Sarriana vs Rayo Cantabria Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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