Today / Real Avila vs D. Fabril

Real Avila vs D. Fabril Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Real Avila

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

D. Fabril

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.63) vs Away GOOD (1.94)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.7%0-29.2%0-34.8%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.9%2-16.2%2-24.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 48.1% — — —

Over 2.5 48.2% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.7%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Avila1.0

D. Fabril1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL AVILA · PPG 1.63

D. FABRIL · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.63) vs Away GOOD (1.94)

Win probability 1X2

Real Avila (H) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

D. Fabril (A) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Avila face D. Fabril on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Avila a 23% chance, the draw 29% and D. Fabril 48%, so D. Fabril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Avila and 1.6 for D. Fabril (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Avila are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.94 for D. Fabril. This match finished 0-4.

Real Avila vs D. Fabril Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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