Today / Austria - 2. Liga / A. Lustenau vs Bregenz

A. Lustenau vs Bregenz Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 08:30

A. Lustenau

PPG 2.15 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bregenz

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.6%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.6%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-16.9%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 71.4% 1.40 -16.3%

Draw 23.5% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Away win 16.7% 13.8% 7.25 +21.1%

Over 2.5 60.0% 61.7% 1.62 -2.8%

Over 3.5 37.7% 39.2% 2.55 -3.9%

BTTS 57.8% 56.5% 1.77 +2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 60% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Lustenau2.1

Bregenz1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

A. LUSTENAU · PPG 2.15

BREGENZ · PPG 0.46

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.15) vs P(Home)=59.8%

Win probability 1X2

A. Lustenau (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -16.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Bregenz (A) 16.7%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Lustenau face Bregenz in Austria - 2. Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Lustenau a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Bregenz 17%, so A. Lustenau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for A. Lustenau and 1.0 for Bregenz (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Lustenau are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.46 for Bregenz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 2-0.

A. Lustenau vs Bregenz Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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