Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Liverpool M. vs Danubio

Liverpool M. vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:30

Liverpool M.

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Danubio

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.9%0-25.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.4%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.6%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

Draw 29.8% 34.7% 2.88 -14.2%

Away win 31.8% 30.3% 3.30 +4.9%

Over 2.5 49.2% — — —

Over 3.5 27.3% — — —

BTTS 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool M.1.4

Danubio1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL M. · PPG 0.83

DANUBIO · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

52%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool M. (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.6%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.2%

Danubio (A) 31.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool M. face Danubio in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool M. a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Danubio 32%, so Liverpool M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Liverpool M. and 1.2 for Danubio (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool M. are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.14 for Danubio. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Liverpool M. vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions