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Nice vs Lens Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:05

Nice

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lens

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.8%0-28.2%0-35.2%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.3%2-16.2%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 23.0% 4.35 -2.6%

Draw 25.6% 25.6% 3.90 -0.2%

Away win 52.0% 58.5% 1.71 -11.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 62.5% 1.60 -5.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.8% 2.45 -10.1%

BTTS 60.4% 64.5% 1.55 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.4%

A 52% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nice1.2

Lens1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NICE · PPG 1.20

LENS · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Nice (H) 22.4%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -2.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.2%

Lens (A) 52.0%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nice face Lens in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nice a 22% chance, the draw 26% and Lens 52%, so Lens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nice and 1.9 for Lens (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nice are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.60 for Lens. This match finished 1-1.

Nice vs Lens Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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