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Bahia W vs Palmeiras W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

Bahia W

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Palmeiras W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+11.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.4%0-25.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.8%1-110.0%1-28.7%1-35.0%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 16.7% 6.00 +101.6%

Draw 25.9% 25.0% 4.00 +3.6%

Away win 40.5% 69.0% 1.45 -41.3%

Over 2.5 64.2% 61.7% 1.62 +4.0%

Over 3.5 42.1% 40.0% 2.50 +5.3%

BTTS 66.7% 59.9% 1.67 +11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.7%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia W1.6

Palmeiras W1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA W · PPG 1.80

PALMEIRAS W · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bahia W (H) 33.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +101.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.6%

Palmeiras W (A) 40.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -41.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia W face Palmeiras W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia W a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Palmeiras W 41%, so Palmeiras W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bahia W and 1.7 for Palmeiras W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia W are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.00 for Palmeiras W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +101.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Bahia W vs Palmeiras W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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