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Sloga Doboj vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:45

Sloga Doboj

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-113.3%0-27.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.9%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-16.9%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 62.5% 1.60 -48.8%

Draw 34.4% 28.2% 3.55 +22.1%

Away win 33.6% 19.6% 5.10 +71.4%

Over 2.5 33.9% 46.5% 2.15 -27.1%

Over 3.5 15.4% 25.6% 3.90 -39.9%

BTTS 43.4% 48.8% 2.05 -11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.4%

D 34% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 0–1 13.3%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sloga Doboj1.0

Siroki Brijeg1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.9% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOGA DOBOJ · PPG 1.20

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Sloga Doboj (H) 32.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -48.8%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +22.1%

Siroki Brijeg (A) 33.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +71.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sloga Doboj face Siroki Brijeg in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sloga Doboj a 32% chance, the draw 34% and Siroki Brijeg 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sloga Doboj and 1.0 for Siroki Brijeg (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sloga Doboj are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.87 for Siroki Brijeg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Sloga Doboj vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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