Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Cerro vs D. Maldonado

Cerro vs D. Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

Cerro

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Maldonado

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-113.4%0-29.0%0-34.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.6%2-16.2%2-24.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.0%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -13.8%

Draw 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

Away win 43.4% 48.1% 2.08 -9.7%

Over 2.5 40.3% 40.8% 2.45 -1.3%

Over 3.5 20.0% 21.1% 4.75 -5.0%

BTTS 47.5% 48.8% 2.05 -2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.5%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 0–1✓ 13.4%

#4 0–2 9.0%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro1.0

D. Maldonado1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO · PPG 1.29

D. MALDONADO · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Cerro (H) 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.8%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.0%

D. Maldonado (A) 43.4%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro face D. Maldonado in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro a 25% chance, the draw 32% and D. Maldonado 43%, so D. Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cerro and 1.3 for D. Maldonado (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for D. Maldonado. This match finished 0-1.

Cerro vs D. Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions