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Schalke 04 vs Dusseldorf Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

Schalke 04

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dusseldorf

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.5%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.3%1-111.1%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.5%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 65.4% 1.53 -13.3%

Draw 26.9% 23.8% 4.20 +13.0%

Away win 16.4% 18.5% 5.40 -11.4%

Over 2.5 47.3% 64.5% 1.55 -26.7%

Over 3.5 25.6% 42.6% 2.35 -39.8%

BTTS 48.4% 63.7% 1.57 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0✓ 13.3%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schalke 041.7

Dusseldorf0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHALKE 04 · PPG 2.40

DUSSELDORF · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

63%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=56.7%

Win probability 1X2

Schalke 04 (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -13.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +13.0%

Dusseldorf (A) 16.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schalke 04 face Dusseldorf in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schalke 04 a 57% chance, the draw 27% and Dusseldorf 16%, so Schalke 04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Schalke 04 and 0.8 for Dusseldorf (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schalke 04 are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.87 for Dusseldorf. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Schalke 04 vs Dusseldorf Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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