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Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:15

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.9%0-26.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.1%1-111.9%1-28.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 29.0% 3.45 +12.1%

Draw 28.7% 25.6% 3.90 +11.9%

Away win 38.8% 52.6% 1.90 -26.3%

Over 2.5 53.3% 64.5% 1.55 -17.4%

Over 3.5 31.0% 42.6% 2.35 -27.2%

BTTS 58.6% 66.7% 1.50 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.6%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 6.0%

#5 0–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motor Lublin1.3

Lech Poznan1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.53

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Motor Lublin (H) 32.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +12.1%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +11.9%

Lech Poznan (A) 38.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motor Lublin face Lech Poznan in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motor Lublin a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Lech Poznan 39%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Motor Lublin and 1.5 for Lech Poznan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motor Lublin are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.73 for Lech Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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