Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 31 Motor Lublin Arena· Lublin Saturday, May 2, 2026 18:15

Motor Lublin PPG 1.53

0-1 HIT CS5

Lech Poznan PPG 1.73

Home· +12.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Motor Lublin face Lech Poznan in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motor Lublin a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Lech Poznan 39%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Motor Lublin and 1.5 for Lech Poznan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motor Lublin are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.73 for Lech Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.5%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +12.1%

Draw 28.7%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +11.9%

Away 38.8%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -26.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.3% Odds: 1.55 -17.4%

Over 3.5 31.0% Odds: 2.35 -27.2%

BTTS 58.6% Odds: 1.50 -12.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Motor Lublin

1.33

Lech Poznan

1.47

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+12.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.73)