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Metz vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Metz

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monaco

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.9%0-27.5%0-34.7%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.4%1-110.1%1-29.6%1-36.0%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.4%2-16.5%2-26.2%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 13.5% 7.40 +81.3%

Draw 25.5% 20.0% 5.00 +27.5%

Away win 50.1% 73.5% 1.36 -31.9%

Over 2.5 61.5% 74.1% 1.35 -17.0%

Over 3.5 39.3% 54.1% 1.85 -27.3%

BTTS 63.0% 66.7% 1.50 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

A 50% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metz1.3

Monaco1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

METZ · PPG 0.67

MONACO · PPG 1.27

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Metz (H) 24.5%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +81.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +27.5%

Monaco (A) 50.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metz face Monaco in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metz a 25% chance, the draw 26% and Monaco 50%, so Monaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Metz and 1.9 for Monaco (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metz are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.27 for Monaco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +81.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Metz vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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