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Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Arsenal

PPG 2.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Fulham

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Home 67% chance

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.8%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-110.7%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-16.0%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% 69.9% 1.43 -16.4%

Draw 25.6% 23.3% 4.30 +10.1%

Away win 15.9% 13.9% 7.20 +14.5%

Over 2.5 51.1% 54.1% 1.85 -5.5%

Over 3.5 29.0% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

BTTS 50.8% 48.8% 2.05 +4.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.8%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal1.8

Fulham0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL · PPG 2.41

FULHAM · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.41) vs P(Home)=58.5%

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal (H) 58.5%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -16.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +10.1%

Fulham (A) 15.9%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal face Fulham in England - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal a 59% chance, the draw 26% and Fulham 16%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Arsenal and 0.9 for Fulham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 0.94 for Fulham. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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