England - Premier LeagueRegular Season - 35Emirates Stadium· LondonSaturday, May 2, 202616:30
ArsenalPPG 2.41
3-0MISS
FulhamPPG 0.94
Away· +14.5%⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home58.5%
Odds: 1.43EV: -16.4%
Draw25.6%
Odds: 4.30EV: +10.1%
Away15.9%
Odds: 7.20EV: +14.5%
Model lean: HomeNot tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.551.1%Odds: 1.85-5.5%
Over 3.529.0%Odds: 3.20-7.2%
BTTS50.8%Odds: 2.05+4.1%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st1-1✘
2nd2-0✘
3rd1-0✘
4th2-1✘
5th0-0✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal
1.84
Fulham
0.88
Model Suggestion
Home-16.4%NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -16.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. Highest raw EV: Away (+14.5%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.41) vs P(Home)=58.5%