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Vaduz vs Lausanne Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

Vaduz

PPG 2.88 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lausanne Ouchy

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.8%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.6%1-19.7%1-25.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-16.7%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 61.7% 1.62 -7.8%

Draw 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.0%

Away win 19.0% 23.8% 4.20 -20.2%

Over 2.5 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 39.0% 43.5% 2.30 -10.3%

BTTS 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaduz2.0

Lausanne Ouchy1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VADUZ · PPG 2.88

LAUSANNE OUCHY · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.88) vs P(Home)=56.9%

Win probability 1X2

Vaduz (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -7.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.0%

Lausanne Ouchy (A) 19.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaduz face Lausanne Ouchy in Switzerland - Challenge League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaduz a 57% chance, the draw 24% and Lausanne Ouchy 19%, so Vaduz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vaduz and 1.1 for Lausanne Ouchy (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaduz are averaging 2.88 points per game versus 1.25 for Lausanne Ouchy. This match finished 2-2.

Vaduz vs Lausanne Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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