Today / France - Ligue 1 / Lens vs Toulouse

Lens vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Lens

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Toulouse

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.1%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.7%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 67.1% 1.49 -22.8%

Draw 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +6.1%

Away win 23.7% 16.7% 6.00 +42.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 60.6% 1.65 -17.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 37.7% 2.65 -25.5%

BTTS 51.9% 56.5% 1.77 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lens1.6

Toulouse1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LENS · PPG 2.57

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=51.8%

Win probability 1X2

Lens (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -22.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +6.1%

Toulouse (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +42.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lens face Toulouse in France - Ligue 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lens a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Toulouse 24%, so Lens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lens and 1.0 for Toulouse (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lens are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.21 for Toulouse. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Lens vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 1 Predictions