Lens vs Toulouse Prediction & Tips

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France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 30 Stade Bollaert-Delelis· Lens Friday, April 17, 2026 18:45

Lens PPG 2.57

3-2 MISS

Toulouse PPG 1.21

Away· +42.2% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.8%

Odds: 1.49 EV: -22.8%

Draw 24.5%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +6.1%

Away 23.7%

Odds: 6.00 EV: +42.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.1% Odds: 1.65 -17.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 2.65 -25.5%

BTTS 51.9% Odds: 1.77 -8.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Lens

1.65

Toulouse

1.03

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+42.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=51.8%