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Legia Warsaw vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:30

Legia Warsaw

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-113.8%0-210.0%0-34.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.9%2-15.6%2-24.1%2-31.9%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 61.7% 1.62 -61.8%

Draw 26.8% 26.7% 3.75 +0.5%

Away win 49.6% 18.5% 5.40 +167.8%

Over 2.5 41.5% 51.3% 1.95 -19.1%

Over 3.5 20.9% 29.4% 3.40 -28.9%

BTTS 45.4% 51.8% 1.93 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob45.4%

A 50% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.8%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 10.0%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legia Warsaw0.9

Zaglebie Lubin1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGIA WARSAW · PPG 1.50

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Legia Warsaw (H) 23.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -61.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.5%

Zaglebie Lubin (A) 49.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +167.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warsaw face Zaglebie Lubin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warsaw a 24% chance, the draw 27% and Zaglebie Lubin 50%, so Zaglebie Lubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Legia Warsaw and 1.4 for Zaglebie Lubin (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warsaw are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.29 for Zaglebie Lubin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +167.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Legia Warsaw vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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