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Paris SG vs Lorient Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:00

Paris SG

PPG 2.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lorient

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWL

// Model verdict

Home 72% chance

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.1%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.0%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.1%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-16.5%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 75.2% 1.33 -13.2%

Draw 21.8% 19.0% 5.25 +14.4%

Away win 12.9% 12.9% 7.75 -0.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 70.4% 1.42 -15.8%

Over 3.5 37.0% 50.0% 2.00 -26.0%

BTTS 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.9%

H 65% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris SG2.2

Lorient0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS SG · PPG 2.47

LORIENT · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

72%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.47), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Paris SG (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -13.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +14.4%

Lorient (A) 12.9%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris SG face Lorient in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris SG a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Lorient 13%, so Paris SG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Paris SG and 0.9 for Lorient (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris SG are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 0.73 for Lorient. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Paris SG vs Lorient Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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