Today / Germany - 3. Liga / VfB Stuttgart B vs RW Essen

VfB Stuttgart B vs RW Essen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

VfB Stuttgart B

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

RW Essen

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 71% chance

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.7%0-25.2%0-33.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.2%1-19.4%1-28.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.7%2-27.0%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.3%3-14.2%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 29.4% 3.40 +15.3%

Draw 25.2% 25.0% 4.00 +0.8%

Away win 40.9% 52.4% 1.91 -21.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 70.4% 1.42 -4.6%

Over 3.5 45.5% 48.8% 2.05 -6.7%

BTTS 69.0% 72.5% 1.38 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.0%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfB Stuttgart B1.6

RW Essen1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VFB STUTTGART B · PPG 1.65

RW ESSEN · PPG 1.59

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

71%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.65), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

VfB Stuttgart B (H) 33.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +15.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.8%

RW Essen (A) 40.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Stuttgart B face RW Essen in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Stuttgart B a 34% chance, the draw 25% and RW Essen 41%, so RW Essen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for VfB Stuttgart B and 1.8 for RW Essen (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Stuttgart B are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.59 for RW Essen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 6-1.

VfB Stuttgart B vs RW Essen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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