Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Ulm vs Viktoria Koln

Ulm vs Viktoria Koln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

Ulm

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Viktoria Koln

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.7%0-26.3%0-33.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.7%1-111.0%1-28.9%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-17.8%2-26.3%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.7%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 40.8% 2.45 -22.1%

Draw 27.2% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Away win 40.9% 37.0% 2.70 +10.4%

Over 2.5 58.7% 59.9% 1.67 -2.0%

Over 3.5 36.3% 37.0% 2.70 -2.0%

BTTS 62.5% 65.4% 1.53 -4.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulm1.4

Viktoria Koln1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ULM · PPG 1.12

VIKTORIA KOLN · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Ulm (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Viktoria Koln (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulm face Viktoria Koln in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulm a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Viktoria Koln 41%, so Viktoria Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ulm and 1.6 for Viktoria Koln (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulm are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.18 for Viktoria Koln. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Ulm vs Viktoria Koln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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