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Zeljeznicar vs Posusje Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:30

Zeljeznicar

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Posusje

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-115.2%0-26.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.8%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.5%2-15.8%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-11.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 58.8% 1.70 -44.2%

Draw 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

Away win 34.0% 20.0% 5.00 +70.0%

Over 2.5 26.3% — — —

Over 3.5 10.5% — — —

BTTS 34.6% 44.4% 2.25 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob34.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1 15.2%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 1–1✓ 13.3%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zeljeznicar0.9

Posusje0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ZELJEZNICAR · PPG 1.29

POSUSJE · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Zeljeznicar (H) 32.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -44.2%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.9%

Posusje (A) 34.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +70.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zeljeznicar face Posusje in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zeljeznicar a 33% chance, the draw 33% and Posusje 34%, so Posusje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Zeljeznicar and 0.9 for Posusje (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zeljeznicar are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.79 for Posusje. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +70.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Zeljeznicar vs Posusje Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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