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Siauliai vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Siauliai

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Suduva

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-116.1%0-211.1%0-35.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.4%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.4%2-14.7%2-23.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.9% 25.0% 4.00 -24.4%

Draw 31.4% 29.9% 3.35 +5.2%

Away win 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Over 2.5 36.3% 51.8% 1.93 -29.9%

Over 3.5 17.0% 30.3% 3.30 -43.9%

BTTS 41.9% 56.5% 1.77 -25.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob41.9%

A 50% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siauliai0.8

Suduva1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.80

SUDUVA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Siauliai (H) 18.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -24.4%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +5.2%

Suduva (A) 49.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siauliai face Suduva in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siauliai a 19% chance, the draw 31% and Suduva 50%, so Suduva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Siauliai and 1.4 for Suduva (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siauliai are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.50 for Suduva. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Siauliai vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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