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Tranmere vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Tranmere

PPG 0.77 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Grimsby

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.2%0-28.3%0-34.4%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.1%2-16.7%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 31.7% 3.15 -20.6%

Draw 28.2% 28.2% 3.55 +0.1%

Away win 46.6% 47.2% 2.12 -1.2%

Over 2.5 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Over 3.5 29.9% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

BTTS 56.4% 61.7% 1.62 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob56.4%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–2 8.3%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tranmere1.1

Grimsby1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANMERE · PPG 0.77

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.64) vs Home POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Tranmere (H) 25.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -20.6%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.1%

Grimsby (A) 46.6%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tranmere face Grimsby in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tranmere a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Grimsby 47%, so Grimsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tranmere and 1.6 for Grimsby (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tranmere are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 1.64 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Tranmere vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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