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Etoile Carouge vs Wil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:15

Etoile Carouge

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Wil

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-112.1%0-26.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.2%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-17.5%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 45.5% 2.20 -17.7%

Draw 29.7% 30.8% 3.25 -3.5%

Away win 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

Over 2.5 35.9% 55.6% 1.80 -35.4%

Over 3.5 16.7% 33.3% 3.00 -49.9%

BTTS 42.9% 61.7% 1.62 -30.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.9%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 0–0 11.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Etoile Carouge1.1

Wil1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ETOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.00

WIL · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Etoile Carouge (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -17.7%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.5%

Wil (A) 32.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Etoile Carouge face Wil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Etoile Carouge a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Wil 33%, so Etoile Carouge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Etoile Carouge and 1.0 for Wil (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Etoile Carouge are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Wil. This match finished 2-0.

Etoile Carouge vs Wil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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