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Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Stevenage

PPG 2.09 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Wigan Athletic

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.7%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.9%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.8%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 64.5% 1.55 -31.8%

Draw 31.8% 26.7% 3.75 +19.3%

Away win 24.1% 15.6% 6.40 +54.2%

Over 2.5 39.2% 44.4% 2.25 -11.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% 23.1% 4.33 -17.3%

BTTS 46.3% 44.4% 2.25 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0✓ 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stevenage1.3

Wigan Athletic0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STEVENAGE · PPG 2.09

WIGAN ATHLETIC · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs P(Home)=44.0%

Win probability 1X2

Stevenage (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -31.8%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +19.3%

Wigan Athletic (A) 24.1%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +54.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stevenage face Wigan Athletic in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stevenage a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Wigan Athletic 24%, so Stevenage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stevenage and 0.9 for Wigan Athletic (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stevenage are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.86 for Wigan Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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