Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 46 Lamex Stadium· Stevenage Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Stevenage PPG 2.09

1-0 HIT CS3

Wigan Athletic PPG 0.86

Away· +54.2% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stevenage face Wigan Athletic in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stevenage a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Wigan Athletic 24%, so Stevenage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stevenage and 0.9 for Wigan Athletic (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stevenage are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.86 for Wigan Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.0%

Odds: 1.55 EV: -31.8%

Draw 31.8%

Odds: 3.75 EV: +19.3%

Away 24.1%

Odds: 6.40 EV: +54.2%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 39.2% Odds: 2.25 -11.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% Odds: 4.33 -17.3%

BTTS 46.3% Odds: 2.25 +4.2%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Stevenage

1.33

Wigan Athletic

0.93

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 26% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs P(Home)=44.0%