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Newcastle Utd vs Brighton Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Newcastle Utd

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brighton

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.8%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.1%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 40.0% 2.50 -10.5%

Draw 29.2% 27.8% 3.60 +5.1%

Away win 35.0% 39.1% 2.56 -10.4%

Over 2.5 51.7% 60.6% 1.65 -14.7%

Over 3.5 29.6% 37.7% 2.65 -21.6%

BTTS 57.5% 65.4% 1.53 -12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.5%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle Utd1.4

Brighton1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE UTD · PPG 1.53

BRIGHTON · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle Utd (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.5%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +5.1%

Brighton (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle Utd face Brighton in England - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle Utd a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Brighton 35%, so Newcastle Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Newcastle Utd and 1.4 for Brighton (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle Utd are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.18 for Brighton. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Newcastle Utd vs Brighton Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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