Newcastle Utd vs Brighton Prediction & Tips

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England - Premier League Regular Season - 35 St. James' Park· Newcastle Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Newcastle Utd PPG 1.53

3-1 MISS

Brighton PPG 1.18

Draw· +5.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.8%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -10.5%

Draw 29.2%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +5.1%

Away 35.0%

Odds: 2.56 EV: -10.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.7% Odds: 1.65 -14.7%

Over 3.5 29.6% Odds: 2.65 -21.6%

BTTS 57.5% Odds: 1.53 -12.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Newcastle Utd

1.38

Brighton

1.36

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+5.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)