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Brentford vs West Ham Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Brentford

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

West Ham Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.5%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-111.2%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.5%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 53.5% 1.87 -8.4%

Draw 27.1% 26.3% 3.80 +3.0%

Away win 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -13.1%

Over 2.5 54.9% 62.5% 1.60 -12.2%

Over 3.5 32.5% 40.8% 2.45 -20.4%

BTTS 57.9% 65.4% 1.53 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.9%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brentford1.7

West Ham Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.65

WEST HAM UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Brentford (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -8.4%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +3.0%

West Ham Utd (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brentford face West Ham Utd in England - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brentford a 49% chance, the draw 27% and West Ham Utd 24%, so Brentford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Brentford and 1.2 for West Ham Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brentford are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.00 for West Ham Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Brentford vs West Ham Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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