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Fernwald vs Friedberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Fernwald logo
Fernwald
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
Friedberg logo
Friedberg
PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.4%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.2%1-19.0%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.2%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 50.4%
Draw 24.0%
Away win 25.7%
Over 2.5 67.9%
Over 3.5 46.4%
BTTS 68.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%
O2.5 74%
BTTS 74%
Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob68.0%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%
#2 2–1 9.2%
#3 2–2 6.7%
#4 1–2 6.5%
#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fernwald2.1
Friedberg1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FERNWALD · PPG 1.50

FRIEDBERG · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Fernwald (H) 50.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Friedberg (A) 25.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fernwald face Friedberg in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fernwald a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Friedberg 26%, so Fernwald are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fernwald and 1.4 for Friedberg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fernwald are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.23 for Friedberg. This match finished 1-1.

PredictVantage

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