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Nantes vs Marseille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Nantes

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Marseille

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.9%0-28.5%0-34.9%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.7%2-16.4%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.4%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +3.4%

Draw 27.3% 25.6% 3.90 +6.5%

Away win 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Over 2.5 54.2% 60.6% 1.65 -10.6%

Over 3.5 31.9% 38.5% 2.60 -17.1%

BTTS 57.3% 61.7% 1.62 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob57.3%

A 49% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantes1.1

Marseille1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTES · PPG 0.60

MARSEILLE · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

60%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Nantes (H) 23.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.4%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.5%

Marseille (A) 49.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantes face Marseille in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantes a 24% chance, the draw 27% and Marseille 49%, so Marseille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nantes and 1.7 for Marseille (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantes are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.27 for Marseille. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Nantes vs Marseille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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