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Kapfenberger vs Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:30

Kapfenberger

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liefering

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.0%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.1%1-112.2%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.3%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 33.3% 3.00 +7.1%

Draw 29.4% 26.0% 3.85 +13.2%

Away win 34.8% 50.0% 2.00 -30.4%

Over 2.5 50.8% 65.4% 1.53 -22.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 43.5% 2.30 -33.8%

BTTS 56.8% 69.0% 1.45 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.8%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–0 6.7%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapfenberger1.4

Liefering1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPFENBERGER · PPG 1.50

LIEFERING · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kapfenberger (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.1%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +13.2%

Liefering (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapfenberger face Liefering in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapfenberger a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Liefering 35%, so Kapfenberger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kapfenberger and 1.3 for Liefering (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapfenberger are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Liefering. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-4.

Kapfenberger vs Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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