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First Vienna vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:30

First Vienna

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

WSPG Wels

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.7%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.3%1-112.4%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 46.5% 2.15 -13.6%

Draw 29.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.1%

Away win 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

Over 2.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Over 3.5 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -8.2%

BTTS 55.0% 58.8% 1.70 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0✓ 10.3%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

First Vienna1.4

WSPG Wels1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRST VIENNA · PPG 1.17

WSPG WELS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

First Vienna (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -13.6%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.1%

WSPG Wels (A) 30.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

First Vienna face WSPG Wels in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives First Vienna a 40% chance, the draw 30% and WSPG Wels 30%, so First Vienna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for First Vienna and 1.2 for WSPG Wels (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, First Vienna are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.00 for WSPG Wels. This match finished 1-0.

First Vienna vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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