Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Schalke 04 B vs Dortmund B

Schalke 04 B vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

Schalke 04 B

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dortmund B

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 72.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.4%0-24.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.7%1-18.5%1-27.6%1-34.5%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.5%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.9%3-15.1%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 65.4% 1.53 -38.5%

Draw 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 35.7% 18.5% 5.40 +92.8%

Over 2.5 71.4% 64.5% 1.55 +10.7%

Over 3.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

BTTS 72.2% 63.7% 1.57 +13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob72.2%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schalke 04 B1.9

Dortmund B1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.4% · O3.5 PROB 50.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHALKE 04 B · PPG 1.53

DORTMUND B · PPG 1.87

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.53) vs Away GOOD (1.87)

Win probability 1X2

Schalke 04 B (H) 40.2%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -38.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Dortmund B (A) 35.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +92.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schalke 04 B face Dortmund B in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schalke 04 B a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Dortmund B 36%, so Schalke 04 B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Schalke 04 B and 1.8 for Dortmund B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schalke 04 B are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.87 for Dortmund B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +92.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Schalke 04 B vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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